India-China Relations – Conciliation vs Deterrence

Relevance: GS1-SEC2

Background and Context

  • In a recent podcast, PM Modi made unusually warm comments about China, calling for stability and prosperity through dialogue.
  • This is seen as a significant tonal shift in India’s official stance since the border clashes of 2020 in Ladakh.
  • A disengagement of troops at key border friction points happened just six months ago, signaling gradual thawing.

India’s Position: Conciliatory Shift or Strategic Calculus?

  • It’s unclear if the soft tone indicates a policy change or a temporary diplomatic posture.
  • Historically, India has oscillated between conciliation and confrontation depending on the larger strategic context.
  • The conciliatory tone may be influenced by economic priorities and geopolitical balancing.

External Factors Shaping India’s Stance

  • Signals from Washington are ambiguous post-Trump, raising doubts about US strategic support to India.
  • The absence of clear deterrence strategy—especially in the face of China’s growing military assertiveness—could embolden Beijing.
  • India’s Chief of Defence Staff met with Quad military leaders just days after PM Modi’s remarks, indicating continued back-channel coordination.

Also Read

China’s Presence in Indo-Pacific: Concerns and Strategic Implications – A Multidimensional Analysis

Strategic Concerns Highlighted

  • India’s defence spending as a percentage of GDP and total budget has steadily declined, raising alarms.
  • With China investing heavily in military capabilities, India risks falling behind in modernisation.
  • Over-reliance on dialogue without strength-backed deterrence could signal weakness, encouraging further Chinese assertiveness.

Recommendations and Strategic Suggestions

  • India must maintain deterrence while pursuing diplomatic normalisation.
  • Increased investment is required in:
    • Border infrastructure.
    • Submarine and air capabilities.
    • Interoperability with partners like the US, Japan, and Australia.
  • Diplomatic efforts must be backed by credible military strength to uphold India’s interests and regional stability.

Conclusion: Dialogue without Deterrence Is Risky

  • A stable relationship with China is desirable, but it should not come at the cost of national security and sovereignty.
  • India’s posture must balance conciliation with credible deterrence to prevent future conflicts and maintain leverage.

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