Relevance: International Relations

Introduction

India and Bangladesh share a historically close, multidimensional partnership rooted in geography, culture, and the legacy of the 1971 Liberation War. In recent years, this relationship has evolved into a robust strategic partnership under the leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. However, emerging political churn in Dhaka, coupled with intensifying Chinese influence, necessitates a recalibration of India’s approach.

Evolving Political Context in Bangladesh

• Since August 2023, Bangladesh’s internal political landscape has become increasingly uncertain, with democratic backsliding allegations and international scrutiny over elections.
• The re-election of Sheikh Hasina with diminished opposition participation has created legitimacy concerns among some international actors.
• India’s traditional engagement model, primarily routed through the Awami League, now faces limitations amid increasing domestic criticism of Hasina’s authoritarian governance.

India’s Recent Diplomatic Moves

• PM Modi’s gesture of writing to Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate and prominent figure perceived to be sidelined by the Hasina regime, on Bangladesh’s Independence Day, marks a subtle yet strategic outreach.
• This indicates a shift towards broadening diplomatic bandwidth beyond the ruling party, positioning India to engage with a post-Hasina political order, if and when it emerges.
• The outreach also attempts to counterbalance China’s increasing soft power and strategic investments in Dhaka.

China and Pakistan’s Strategic Forays

• China has significantly expanded its engagement in Bangladesh, including:
  • Military cooperation and hardware sales.
  • Strategic infrastructure under the BRI.
  • Engagements with political opposition, media, and business elites.
• Pakistan has re-opened diplomatic channels through backdoor diplomacy and people-to-people ties, signalling a shift after decades of marginalisation.

Strategic Implications for India

• Bangladesh is critical for India’s Act East Policy, serving as a gateway to Southeast Asia and the Northeast region.
• Shared interests include:
  • Cross-border connectivity (e.g., BBIN, rail and road corridors).
  • Counterterrorism and intelligence cooperation.
  • Management of river waters and migration issues.
• A narrowed focus on the Awami League risks alienating emerging stakeholders, which China is actively cultivating.

Way Forward for India

• India must adopt a multi-vector foreign policy towards Bangladesh, similar to its engagements in Nepal and Sri Lanka.
• Engagement should be state-centric, not regime-centric, encompassing:
  • Civil society.
  • Political opposition.
  • Youth and business communities.
• Renewed emphasis is needed on soft power tools — scholarships, cultural diplomacy, digital cooperation, and people-centric projects.
• Proactively countering Chinese economic leverage requires long-term development partnerships, not just transactional aid.

Conclusion

India’s current recalibration in Dhaka reflects a maturing foreign policy approach, seeking to maintain strategic primacy amid geopolitical flux. The outreach to Muhammad Yunus is not merely symbolic but a signal of intent — to secure Indian interests in the evolving Bangladeshi political landscape through broader, inclusive diplomacy. In an era of shifting power equations, such strategic diversification will be critical for sustaining India’s influence in South Asia.

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